Aug 09, 2022
3 mins read
Baccarat Funk: Counting Cards
So if you've been following my social media (YouTube to Tik Tok and Instagram), you know I am an advocate for counting cards. I am almost certain there is a way to count cards for baccarat such that you can beat the main line bet. However, my studies indicated card counting reveals a vulnerability for the tie and the pairs bet. My studies have almost exclusively been around beating the tie bet, since I discovered how frequently the card count indicates one will occur .
People generally think of card counting for blackjack as this magic trick that lets them know the next hand will be a winner. However if you watch the movie 21, you'll find one accurate description of what card counting for blackjack actually entails. Kevin Spacey mentions that card counting for blackjack is actually a system with progressive bets based on when the card count indicates an advantage. I've devised such a system for baccarat.
The crazy thing is, there are so many people claiming to have done something like this, that almost certainly have not. One of the obvious indicators is that card counting isn't all that difficult, so someone funded properly would be a wild success. The funny thing is that card counting for blackjack, in my opinion, is much more difficult than card counting Baccarat. Although, it feels like I am discovering new information regularly that helps me decipher the nature of shoe behavior.
Card counting for baccarat has a similar aim as shuffle tracking for blackjack. After seeing the cards dealt in a shoe you track a dealer's shuffle in order to recognize the general distribution of cards and you can take an educated guess at when you have the advantage playing blackjack. I believe that it is not necessary to determine card distribution by shuffle tracking when playing Baccarat. I am convinced the card distribution reveals itself as the initial shoe is played. The advantage can be interpreted in small segments, and for the overall shoe, in the very shoe you are playing.
As of yet, I have not released a pairs strategy. I am searching for a coder who can build a program that allows me to compile data related to the frequency and distribution of pairs and the ties as well as the relationships between them. The aim of the analysis is simple, but the code required to process the desired data compilation is out of my present experience range. I have spoken with several coders, but all of them have been too busy for hire. If you know of anyone up to the challenge to acquire various code for reference using GitHub and other sources, please share with me because frankly the game of Baccarat is quite beatable.
Key ingredients to beating baccarat include minimizing risk by limiting exposure, and negating the effect of table limits by using a dominant bankroll. If there is a way to always be as successful betting ties and pairs as I already am 99.6% of the time, then the game of Baccarat can be completely beaten. I feel I'm very close to this solution. I also think I won't necessarily need coding analysis to do it. I think it is even possible to do it simply by gaining massive amounts of experience like a chess player.
Speaking of which I may talk about playing baccarat like chess tomorrow thanks for reading!