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Balanced Decisions

Balanced Decisions

Oct 19, 2022

Bradley Owens, professional poker player in Vegas and wildly successful YouTube poker vlogger, is perhaps my biggest inspiration right now.  He is level-headed, consistent, comical, and courageous.  I fancy myself capable of demonstrating these qualities to my audience while exercising them for myself.

  To be the best you have to believe you are the best.  Muhammad Ali said if you want the bes but you aren't, pretend you are, which points to manifestation.  You don't become the best out of thin air, but asking yourself what a champion would do and then operating that way is perhaps a good place to start.  The most challenging decisions for me pertain to balance. 

I have a pair of students whom I showed my latest and greatest technique for beating the game of Baccarat.  I'm a very my minute detail oriented person and I've realized that isolating specific hands in baccarat is perhaps the best way to isolate your 50/50 chance of beating them.  Sure you can have a result like a natural 9 beating the other side, but the opposite can occur repeatedly at times.

 What if you had every result memorized and remembered how you would play it? This is much the way you remember when you have Kings or Aces when playing poker.  The best part about Baccarat is that every hand is a pair of aces.  All you really need to do is remember how you played it before.  I haven't made it down to exactly specific cards, and the number of possibilities is not known to me as of yet.  However, once again, I'm feeling much closer to championing the game.

Yesterday I won six sessions and to me, that was pretty decent proof that this targeted hand method is fairly strong.  Sometimes you bet Player or Banker, other times you bet winner or loser, still, other times you bet red or blue in the derived roads.  I have made mistakes several times choosing the correct bet and then accidentally betting incorrectly when I place my wager.  Literally knowing the winning bet and then accidentally losing completely ruins your moment.  I recently had a large loss and this technique was able to win me back about 10% in 2 hours.  That basically calls for 20 hours of play just to get back to even on that loss.  Not exactly the timeline I was hoping for, but it will suffice.

To the casual observer, people my current technique may seem very complex or elaborate.  On the contrary, it's actually very simple, much like a poker range chart.  When you learn Game Theory Optimal, there are many specific points of data you need to know in order to make the best decision.  I would say my targeted hand attack is very similar. 

 Luckily, at most baccarat tables they don't care if you look at your phone unlike at my current Casino.  I just keep track of my winning bets right on my phone whenever I can.  This way I only need to bet a targeted range of hands with their specific results one time each.  

I assume if you just use my technique systematically it would necessarily lose, but incorporating it is definitely dynamic.  you certainly wouldn't play aces or Kings the same way every time you saw them, A pair of aces is nothing next to a straight, a flush, three of a kind, or a full house.  Targeted Baccarat hands are very much the same in the regard that shoe behavior tends to be the same throughout the shoe.  When behavior changes, it's usually marked by a series of similar events.  Trending naturals, a long Trend dividing the board, two parallel columns, or repeating and terminating shapes for example indicate events leading to a change in shoe behavior.

Yesterday I enjoyed 100% wins on my sequences of three.  I beat four practice shoes and three live shoes.  I don't know that I've ever had that kind of main line bet success. Either it's very lucky, or simply avoiding being unlucky at any given time.  I like to think that I have enough experience viewing the behavior of the game that my dynamic play allows me to identify the most advantageous series of three bets.  In fact I once met someone who said they like to plan out their next three bets anytime they begin betting.  With relation to probability, I already felt this was a good idea.  I simply didn't know how to incorporate it into the game and in a consistent manner.

I'm learning how to teach my students to use this targeted strategy, manage bet sizing, and play dynamically in such a way that they consider shoe behavior, support and resistance lines, symmetry, and targeted hands at any given time. The result of your first bet in the sequence should determine how you make the next two bets frequently.  Occasionally your sequence of three is a no-brainer.  If you are betting l there won't be a trend of four, you simply bet the loser three times.  Other times, the first losing bet in a sequence will alter what your second bet would have been because of how it indicates the shoe May begin to behave. Intimating this dynamic to my students is the most challenging part of my teaching so far.

We'll see how the strategy holds up in the long run.  Testing so far has certainly instilled a great deal of confidence in me.  I feel ever more aware of gameplay.  I didn't really know what to expect when I first tried it.  Originally, when I was inventing strategies of my own, they seemed not to improve or worsen in my play long term.  This new collection of dynamic play appears to be a winner.  I intend  to demonstrate it over time.  Good luck to all. Stay disciplined. 



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