I recommend reading these reports on the Buy Me A Coffee platform for optimal formatting.

You will find the content below in this order:
1. Definitions
2. The Good
3. The Bad
4. CME Gaps
5. Key Levels
6. Final Thoughts

DEFINITIONS

Liquidity zones are high volume levels that offer support and resistance

Hidden bearish divergence: creating a lower high in price, with a higher high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation down.

Bearish divergence: higher high in price, lower high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal down.

Hidden bullish divergence: creating a higher low in price, with a lower low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation up.

Bullish divergence: creating a lower low in price, with a higher low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal up.

SR flip: turning old resistance into support, and vice-versa.

Fractal: recurring geometric pattern.

THE GOOD

Daily Timeframe

Bullish Market Structure

Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows. This is known as a bullish market structure. As long as Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows, we are technically bullish.

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)

Zone 1: Sitting between 33.9k and 35.2k, Bitcoin is still trading above this Key Daily Liquidity Zone. As long Bitcoin remains above this zone, we can expect it to act as support.

UPDATE: Zone 2: The second LQZ sits at 47.3k - 48.6k, which Bitcoin has risen above. Ideally, it serves as support moving forward.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA): 200

Bitcoin continues to trade above this SMA.

Implication: Ideally, it will serve as a level of support. As long as Bitcoin continues to trade above this SMA, it is considered to be in a bull market by traditional standards.

4H Timeframe 

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)

Zone 4: There is a new LQZ sitting at 46.8k - 47.1k.

Implications: There is a bulk of liquidity resting below the current price of Bitcoin. Ideally, this holds as support.


Divergences

Hidden Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin has a higher low in price, with a lower low in the RSI. This is a hidden bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation up.

Invalidation: Lower low in price and in the RSI.

1H Timeframe

Divergences

Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin has a lower low in price, with a higher low in the MACD. This is a bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.

Invalidation: Lower low in price and in the MACD.

THE BAD

Daily Timeframe

Logarithmic Curve

Bitcoin has lost the median as support and may now be finding resistance from the 0.382 Fibonacci Level

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)

Zone 3: The final daily liquidity zone sits at 60.7k-61.9k, which Bitcoin has lost as support. We may see it serve as resistance moving forward.

Bullish Exhaustion

We have an increase in price with a decline in volume, possibly signalling a loss of bullish momentum in the market.

Network Value to Transaction (NVT)

*This indicator describes the relationship between market cap and transfer volumes.

Bitcoin will likely close below the NVT Signal Line. Typically when this happens, we see a more sustained correction/consolidation phase.

Directional Movement Index (DMI)

*This is another momentum indicator.

Generally speaking, when the blue line (bullish) crosses below the orange line (bearish), it signals a potential shift in momentum to the bears.

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has lost the EMA ribbon as support in this timeframe.

Implication: It may end up serving as strong resistance.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA): 8, 21, 50 and 200

Bitcoin has lost all daily EMAs as support.

Implications: They may serve as resistance moving forward.

Simple Moving Average (SMA): 20, 50 and 100

Bitcoin continues to trade below these SMAs. We have seen a Death Cross between the 50/100-day SMAs.

Implications: They may serve as a level of resistance moving forward.

Divergences

Hidden Bearish Divergence

Bitcoin has lower highs in price, with higher highs in the RSI/MACD. This is a hidden bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation down.

Invalidation: Higher high in price and the oscillators.

4H Timeframe

Bearish Market Structure

Bitcoin has created a new higher high for the first time since November 10th. As long as this this continues and turns into a trend, we can expect higher levels for Bitcoin. But as of now, the market structure on this timeframe remains bearish.

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)


Zone 1: Bitcoin has lost this LQZ as support, which sits at 56.9k - 57.4k.

Zone 2: The LQZ at 48.5k - 48.8k

Zone 3: There is a new LQZ sitting at 50750-50950. Bitcoin has lost this as support. 

Implications: We may see these serve as resistance moving forward.

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has lost the ribbon as support.

Implication: This may serve as a level of resistance moving forward.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA): 20, 50 and 200

Bitcoin has fallen below these SMAs.

Implication: They may serve as resistance moving forward.

1H Timeframe

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has lost the ribbon as support.

Implication: This may serve as a level of resistance moving forward.

CME GAPS

The gap below us at 32480 is still open. Although not all gaps fill, they do tend to, which is why I'm still including this gap as something to be aware of.

GAP: 53675

Key Levels

Daily Timeframe

  1. 29790

  2. 33380

  3. 35910

  4. 38205

  5. 39245

  6. 40735

  7. 42205

  8. 44865

  9. 46255

  10. 46700

  11. 47140

  12. 48290

  13. 49490

  14. 50840

  15. 50590

  16. 51295

  17. 51755

  18. 52665

  19. 53950

  20. 54340

  21. 54720

  22. 55315

  23. 56245

  24. 56900

  25. 57775

  26. 58050

  27. 58415

  28. 58865

  29. Fibonacci Levels

4H Timeframe

  1. 39970

  2. 40755

  3. 41645

  4. 42845

  5. 44215

  6. 45310

  7. 46745

  8. 48145

  9. 48845

  10. 49755

  11. 50380

  12. 51000

  13. 51885

  14. 52190

  15. 52829

  16. 53235

  17. 53865

  18. 54885

  19. 55473

  20. Fibonacci levels

1-hour Timeframe

  1. 42000

  2. 45455

  3. 46130

  4. 47920

  5. 48315

  6. 49190

  7. 49700

  8. 50545

  9. 51680

  10. 52605

  11. 53860

  12. 56040

  13. 57375

  14. Fibonacci levels

FINAL THOUGHTS

RECAP FROM THIS MORNING

After seeing a move to the downside following the SFP of the previous swing high in confluence with the bearish divergences and our Weekly Key Level, Bitcoin is attempting to find support at the middle line of our sideways range. 

As long as Bitcoin remains in the upper half of the range, we can remain more bullish than bearish. If we do continue lower, these are the Fibonacci Levels I'm keeping my eye on for a potential bounce.

And the previous levels we had mapped out are still valid as well.

All in all, Bitcoin remains in the same position as it's been in on a macro level. On a short to medium term level, Bitcoin looks okay as it is consolidating within the upper bounds of our MTF rangeOn a medium term level, I am still slightly more bullish than bearish, but cautious given the recent drop we have seen.

If you found value from this report, don't forget to like+RT the original post on Twitter. It's very much appreciated :)

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TONIGHT

The Good

  1. Trading above the Daily LQZ 1/2

  2. Risen above the 200-day SMAs

  3. 4H/1D/1W Hidden Bullish Divergence

  4. 1H/1D Bullish Divergence

  5. Holding the 1W EMA Ribbon

  6. CME Gap at 53,665

  7. Bullish Market Structure (1D timeframe)

  8. Higher low and higher high market structure forming

  9. Trading above 4H LQZ 4

_

The Bad

  1. 1D Hidden Bearish Divergence

  2. 1W Bearish Divergence

  3. 1M Bearish Divergence

  4. Bullish Exhaustion

  5. Lost the 1H/4H/1D EMA Ribbon

  6. Trading below the 20/50/100-day SMAs

  7. Trading below the 8/21/50/200-day EMAs

  8. Trading below the Daily LQZ 3

  9. Trading below the 4H LQZ 1/2/3

  10. Volume Analysis

  11. Bearish DMI

  12. Bearish NVT

  13. Resistance from the Bitcoin Logarithmic Curve Median Line

  14. 20/50-day SMA Death Cross

  15. 20/100-day SMA Death Cross

  16. 50/100-day SMA Death Cross

  17. Bearish Market Structure (4H timeframe)

  18. Lost the Bull Market Support Band

_

This Macro Volume Analysis still stands.

_

Bitcoin has tumbled to the lower half of the range after failing to hold the middle line. Currently, we are in bearish territory. When an asset trades within a range, it's considered to be more bearish than bullish when trading below the middle line. And vice-versa. Unfortunately, the cause of this is the bearish divergences we've been looking at for the last few days.

What's next?

Bitcoin is currently finding support from the Golden Pocket we identified earlier today. In confluence, we do have a 1H bullish divergence. Now, if Bitcoin does fail to hold this level, we can look to the Fibonacci Levels below.

And if those levels are lost, we have the more macro Fibonacci Levels.

All in all, Bitcoin remains in the same position as it's been on a macro level. As we've been saying over the last few weeks, this period of consolidation/correction will likely take weeks if not months before a concrete decision is made by the market. Whether that's to the upside or downside remains to be seen. But, ranges are areas where many, many traders get chopped up by overtrading. In these conditions, it's best to either stay out, or brush up on your TA and learn how to trade with a high degree of certainty. This is not the time to take your eyes off the market! There are tons of profitable trades to be had.

Friendly reminder to remain level-headed! Even if we do see a meaningful move to the upside sooner rather than later, there's still the possibility that it may be a dead cat bounce. Weekly/Monthly divergences are very significant for the macro outlook of an asset if they aren't invalidated. 

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Thank you for your continued support, and I hope you have a great week!

Cheers!