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You will find the content below in this order:

  • Definitions

  • Market Structure

  • Volume

  • Divergences

  • Key Levels

  • Key Takeaways

Definitions

Liquidity zones are high volume levels that offer support and resistance

Hidden bearish divergence: creating a lower high in price, with a higher high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation down.

Bearish divergence: higher high in price, lower high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal down.

Hidden bullish divergence: creating a higher low in price, with a lower low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation up.

Bullish divergence: creating a lower low in price, with a higher low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal up.

SR (support/resistance) flip: turning old resistance into support, and vice-versa.

Fractal: recurring geometric pattern.

Market Structure

Daily Timeframe

Bitcoin has fallen to lower levels, ultimately creating a new lower low and invalidating the potential market structure change. This implies that Bitcoin is currently in a Bearish Market Structure.

Medium Timeframe

On the medium-term timeframes (MTF), after topping out at 48.2k, Bitcoin has continued to make lower highs and lower lows. This is known as Bearish Market Structure. Technically speaking, unless we break the 40.8k high, on the MTFs we are still bearish.

Volume

Macro Volume

Similar to the bear market of Summer 2021, we have finally seen an increase in volume. If you're a longtime follower, you may remember the macro volume analysis that I created back in November hinting at the high likelihood of a massive move to the downside. Given that we are seeing similar volume come in at the current level that we're at, it does still suggest that there's a strong possibility that we do bottom out here at least in the medium term and continue to higher levels – potentially to 36k to fill the gap there, and then ultimately to 53.6k.

Divergences

1D Timeframe

Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin has a lower low in price, with a higher low in the RSI. This is a bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.

4H Timeframe

Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin has a lower low in price, with a higher low in the RSI. This is a bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.

Hidden Bearish Divergence

Bitcoin has a lower high in price, with a higher high in the RSI/MACD. This is a hidden bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation down.

1H Timeframe

Hidden Bearish Divergence

Bitcoin has a lower high in price, with a higher high in the RSI/MACD. This is a hidden bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation down.

Exaggerated Hidden Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin has a higher low in price, with a similar low in the RSI. This is an exaggerated bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.

Key Levels

CME Gaps

NEW GAP: 29,785

GAP: 36,065

GAP: 32,480 – This gap has nearly been completely filled!

GAP: 53,675 – As mentioned when the gap first formed, this is a "breakaway gap". These are gaps that form when there's a dramatic shift in market structure. Typically these gaps take much longer to fill than the normal gaps. This is comparable to the gap at 32,480.

Daily Timeframe

  1. 29000

  2. 29765

  3. 30020

  4. 31015

  5. 32253

  6. 35060

  7. 37000

  8. 37610

  9. 38680

  10. 39420

  11. 39725

  12. 40400

  13. 41135

  14. 41465

  15. 42180

  16. 44525

  17. 45510

  18. 47420

  19. 48870

  20. 50765

  21. 51800

  22. 53800

  23. 57785

  24. 58480

  25. 61310

  26. 63590

  27. 65530

  28. 67600

  29. Fibonacci Levels

4H Timeframe

  1. 26535

  2. 27600

  3. 28915

  4. 30980

  5. 32905

  6. 33960

  7. 35490

  8. 36200

  9. 36630

  10. 37550

  11. 39250

  12. 40350

  13. Fibonacci levels

1H Timeframe

  1. 27600

  2. 29000

  3. 29710

  4. 30300

  5. 30815

  6. 31050

  7. 32060

  8. 32665

  9. Fibonacci levels

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has fallen down to lower levels, ultimately breaking any bullish market structure we had. Now, Bitcoin has a Bearish Market Structure across all timeframes. We are still trading within the Falling Wedge Pattern, with a valid 1D bullish divergence. Above, I've included the immediate Key Levels to be aware of when trading.

The other levels both above and below mentioned in the previous reports are still relevant today.

These are the macro Fibonacci Levels right below us that we can look to for support. Golden Pocket = yellow, 0.786 = red, 0.886 = blue.

And these are other 0.786/0.886 levels we can look towards.

If we see a continued move up from here, these are the Golden Pockets we can look towards.

Thanks for your continued support! If you have any questions, feel free to DM me. Cheers!

SHORT-TERM BIAS: NEUTRAL

MEDIUM-TERM BIAS: BEARISH-NEUTRAL

LONG-TERM BIAS: BEARISH