May 31, 2022
3 mins read
You will find the content below in this order:
Liquidity zones are high volume levels that offer support and resistance
Hidden bearish divergence: creating a lower high in price, with a higher high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation down.
Bearish divergence: higher high in price, lower high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal down.
Hidden bullish divergence: creating a higher low in price, with a lower low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation up.
Bullish divergence: creating a lower low in price, with a higher low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal up.
SR (support/resistance) flip: turning old resistance into support, and vice-versa.
Fractal: recurring geometric pattern.
Bitcoin has fallen to lower levels, ultimately creating a new lower low and invalidating the potential market structure change. This implies that Bitcoin is currently in a Bearish Market Structure.
On the medium-term timeframes (MTF), after topping out at 48.2k, Bitcoin has continued to make lower highs and lower lows. This is known as Bearish Market Structure. Technically speaking, unless we break the 40.8k high, on the MTFs we are still bearish.
Similar to the bear market of Summer 2021, we have finally seen an increase in volume. If you're a longtime follower, you may remember the macro volume analysis that I created back in November hinting at the high likelihood of a massive move to the downside. Given that we are seeing similar volume come in at the current level that we're at, it does still suggest that there's a strong possibility that we do bottom out here at least in the medium term and continue to higher levels – potentially to 36k to fill the gap there, and then ultimately to 53.6k.
Hidden Bearish Divergence
Bitcoin has a lower high in price, with a higher high in the RSI/MACD. This is a hidden bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation.
Bitcoin has a higher high in price, with lower high in the MACD and a similar high in the RSI. This is a bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal down.
NEW GAP: 28,750
GAP: 53,545 – As mentioned when the gap first formed, this is a "breakaway gap". These are gaps that form when there's a dramatic shift in market structure. Typically these gaps take much longer to fill than the normal gaps. This is comparable to the gap at 32,480.
Bitcoin has broken to the upside from the fractal discussed on Friday. Currently, there are a few levels above us that may serve as resistance, ultimately looking at the Golden Pocket above as a strong level of resistance/TP level for any long positions that one may be in.
And if we continue up even further, these are the Golden Pockets to look towards as potential points of resistance.
If we see a pullback, these are the levels that I would be looking towards for potential long entries.
Having a closer look at the fractal, we can see that we are indeed trying to change the current market structure to a bullish one with this new potential higher high. If this trend continues, it would imply that there's a higher likelihood for continuation up.
What I'm looking for for confidence in a more substantial pullback, if there is to be one, is a new 4H bearish divergence. Until then, even with new 1H bearish divergences, we may see new 1H hidden bullish divergences follow to continue the trend up. But, as always, we don't know for sure that this will happen until new data comes in.
Thanks for your continued support! If you have any questions, feel free to DM me. Cheers!
SHORT-TERM BIAS: BULLISH
MEDIUM-TERM BIAS: NEUTRAL
LONG-TERM BIAS: BEARISH