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You will find the content below in this order:
1. Definitions
2. The Good
3. The Bad
4. CME Gaps
5. Key Levels
6. Final Thoughts

DEFINITIONS

Liquidity zones are high volume levels that offer support and resistance

Hidden bearish divergence: creating a lower high in price, with a higher high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation down.

Bearish divergence: higher high in price, lower high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal down.

Hidden bullish divergence: creating a higher low in price, with a lower low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation up.

Bullish divergence: creating a lower low in price, with a higher low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal up.

SR flip: turning old resistance into support, and vice-versa.

Fractal: recurring geometric pattern.

THE GOOD

Daily Timeframe

Logarithmic Curve

We have now seen multiple candles close above the median line (the thicker white line). To me, this is extremely bullish. Ideally, we make our way up to the next Fibonacci level, which is the 61.8 currently at $71,500.

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)

Zone 1: Sitting between 33.9k and 35.2k, Bitcoin is still trading above this Key Daily Liquidity Zone. As long Bitcoin remains above this zone, we can expect it to act as support.

Zone 2: The second LQZ sits at 46.4k - 47.6k.

Zone 3: The final daily liquidity zone sits at 60.7k-61.9k. This was the last major LQZ that was holding the price of Bitcoin down. As we can see in the chart above, the moment we broke through it we saw an insane pump follow. Ideally, this serves as strong support moving forward.

Directional Movement Index (DMI)

*This is another momentum indicator.

Generally speaking, when the blue line (bullish) crosses above the orange line (bearish), it signals a potential shift in momentum.

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin continues to trade above the EMA ribbon in this timeframe.

Implication: The momentum is with the bulls now.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA): 8, 21, 50 and 200

Bitcoin is trying to find support from the 8-day EMA and is currently trading above the other three EMAs.

Implications: Ideally they will all serve as support.

Simple Moving Average (SMA): 20, 50, 100 and 200

Bitcoin is trading above the 50/100/200-day SMAs and has found support from the 20-day SMA.

Implications: These will ideally serve as a level of support.

Patterns

*Please note not all technical targets will be hit, so be aware of all key levels and Fibonacci Levels, and also look out for divergences as they have the power to reverse a trend

Symmetrical Triangle

The first target has been hit!

Rising Channel

4H Timeframe

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)

Zone 1: Bitcoin is attempting to hold this LQZ as support, which sits at 60.9k - 61.4k.

Implications: A lot of the liquidity in this timeframe rests below the current price of Bitcoin. Ideally, this LQZ will serve as support.

Simple Moving Average (SMA): 200

Bitcoin is trading above this SMA.

Implications: It will ideally serve as a level of support.

THE BAD

Daily Timeframe

Bullish Exhaustion

We have an increase in price with a decline in volume, possibly signalling a loss of bullish momentum in the market.

Network Value to Transaction (NVT)

*This indicator describes the relationship between market cap and transfer volumes.

Bitcoin has lost the NVT Signal Line as support. Typically when this happens, Bitcoin sees a more sustained correction.

Divergences

Bearish Divergence (red)

Bitcoin has a higher high in price, with a lower high on the RSI/MACD. This is a bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal. In this case, that means down.

Note: The higher the timeframe, the longer divergences take to develop and play out.

Invalidation: Higher high in price, with a higher high on the RSI/MACD.

Patterns

*Please note not all technical targets will be hit, so be aware of all key levels and Fibonacci Levels, and also look out for divergences as they have the power to reverse a trend

Rising Wedge

4H Timeframe

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has fallen below the EMA ribbon.

Implication: Momentum is with the bears. Keep in mind, the narrower the ribbon the weaker it serves as support/resistance.

Simple Moving Average (SMA): 20 and 50

Bitcoin is currently finding resistance from these two SMAs.

Implication: They may continue serving as resistance for the foreseeable future.

1H Timeframe

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has fallen below the EMA ribbon.

Implication: Momentum is with the bears. Keep in mind, the narrower the ribbon the weaker it serves as support/resistance.

CME GAPS

The gap below us at 32480 is still open. Although not all gaps fill, they do tend to, which is why I'm still including this gap as something to be aware of.

Gap at 61.2k.

Key Levels

Daily Timeframe

  1. 49490

  2. 51295

  3. 51755

  4. 52665

  5. 53950

  6. 54340

  7. 55315

  8. 55995

  9. 56670

  10. 57470

  11. 58415

  12. 58865

  13. 60330

  14. 60690

  15. 60940

  16. 61190

  17. 61285

  18. 61670

  19. 61860

  20. 62009

  21. 62250

  22. 63080

  23. 63220

  24. 63575

  25. 64125

  26. 64280

  27. 64885

  28. 65520

  29. 66000

  30. 67525

  31. Fibonacci Levels

4-hour Timeframe

  1. 53235

  2. 53865

  3. 54885

  4. 55473

  5. 56320

  6. 57380

  7. 58000

  8. 58430

  9. 59495

  10. 60200

  11. 60865

  12. 61300

  13. 61844

  14. 62505

  15. 63800

  16. 64855

  17. 66640

  18. Fibonacci levels

1-hour Timeframe

  1. 59560

  2. 60000

  3. 60360

  4. 61055

  5. 61405

  6. 61880

  7. 62375

  8. 62695

  9. 62930

  10. 63710

  11. 64485

  12. 65465

  13. 66190

  14. 66640

  15. 67000

  16. 67790

  17. 68115

  18. 68525

  19. Fibonacci levels

FINAL THOUGHTS

RECAP FROM THIS MORNING

Last night, Bitcoin broke out of the Inverse Head & Shoulders (IHS) pattern only to be rejected by the Golden Pocket of this recent move down.

Right now, we are seeing a Bitcoin pullback after this failed attempt to realize the full IHS target at roughly 68.2k.

Everything mentioned in last night's Weekly Market Report still stands. I still do believe we will fill the CME Gap at 61.2k. Whether it's today, or tomorrow, or next week, my bias is leaning towards it getting filled for a few reasons:

  1. Bearish technicals supporting a more sustained move down

  2. Every single gap that has formed since August 2021 has been filled. If we're playing a game of statistics, that means there's a very high likelihood that this gap is also filled

All in all, Bitcoin is still in an uptrend, so we can remain reasonably bullish. But, there is still caution to be had given the huge pullback we are seeing in confluence with the bearish technicals we've been looking at over the last few days/weeks. Keep in mind, we still may have more downside to go before any sort of meaningful continuation up. If/when the CME Gap fills (which I do believe it will), we will need to re-evaluate the market conditions then.

_
TONIGHT

The Good

  1. Trading above all Daily LQZs

  2. Trading above 1D EMA ribbons

  3. Holding the 200 4H SMA as support

  4. Hold the 8/21/50/200 1D EMAs as support

  5. Holding the 20/50/100/200 1D SMAs as support

  6. Trading above all 1W MAs

  7. Bullish DMI

  8. Trading above 4H LQZ 1

  9. Risen above the Logarithmic Curve Median Line

  10. Symmetrical Triangle breakout

  11. Inverse Head & Shoulders

_

The Bad

  1. Potential for the 1D Bearish Divergence to continue to influence PA

  2. 1W Bearish Divergence

  3. Bullish Exhaustion

  4. CME Gap at 61.2k

  5. Bearish Fractal

  6. Lost the 1H/4H EMA Ribbons

  7. Rising Wedge

  8. Volume Analysis

  9. Bearish NVT

_

This Macro Volume Analysis still stands.

As does this Bearish Fractal.

_

After Bitcoin was rejected by the Golden Pocket following the Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout, the price has fallen by as much as 5% today.

Momentum on the 1D MACD histogram remains negative, and the 4H MACD histogram has just printed its first negative momentum bar. These red negative histogram bars on the MACD indicate that the selling/bearish pressure in the market now outweighs the buying/bullish pressure.

The final thoughts from this morning and last night remain the same pretty much. I am still looking for a move to the downside first before a rise.

Depending on how far the price of Bitcoin falls, the Golden Pockets above are important levels I have my eye on for bounces.

If Bitcoin does continue up for a new ATH, these potential levels for a bounce will change.

All in all, Bitcoin is still in an uptrend, so we can remain reasonably bullish. But, there is still caution to be had given the huge pullback we are seeing in confluence with the bearish technicals we've been looking at over the last few days/weeks. Keep in mind, we still may have more downside to go before any sort of meaningful continuation up. If/when the CME Gap fills (which I do believe it will), we will need to re-evaluate the market conditions then.

Thank you for your continued support and I hope you have a great start to your week!

Cheers!

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