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You will find the content below in this order:
1. Definitions
2. The Good
3. The Bad
4. Key Levels
5. Final Thoughts

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DEFINITIONS

Liquidity zones are high volume levels that offer support and resistance

Hidden bearish divergence: creating a lower high in price, with a higher high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation down.

Bearish divergence: higher high in price, lower high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal down.

Hidden bullish divergence: creating a higher low in price, with a lower low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation up.

Bullish divergence: creating a lower low in price, with a higher low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal up.

SR flip: turning old resistance into support, and vice-versa.

Fractal: recurring geometric pattern.

Price action (PA): the movement of an asset's price over time.

THE GOOD 

4H Timeframe

Key Liquidity Zone

Zone 1: Bitcoin is trying to find support from this LQZ, which now sits at 61.8-62.3k. Losing this as support may result in a continued move down.

Zone 2: There is another 4H LQZ sitting at 55-55.5k that may act as support if we do get down there.

Implications: The majority of the liquidity in this timeframe rests below the current price of Bitcoin. Ideally, both of these LQZ will serve as support.

Simple Moving Averages (SMA): 20, 50 and 200

Bitcoin has lost the 20 SMA as support but is currently trying to find support from the 50 SMA.

Implication: Ideally, the 50 SMA serves as support along with 200 SMA if we get down there.

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin continues to trade above the EMA ribbon in this timeframe.

Implication: The momentum is currently still with the bulls. Ideally, this will continue to serve as support.

Divergences

Potential Hidden Bullish Divergence (green)

We have a higher low in price, with a lower low on the RSI/MACD. This is a hidden bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation up.

Invalidation: Lower low in price, with a lower low on the RSI.

1H Timeframe

Divergences

Potential Bullish Divergence (green)

We have a lower low in price, with a higher low on the RSI. This is a bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.

Invalidation: Lower low in price, with a lower low on the RSI.

Patterns

*Please note not all technical targets will be hit, so be aware of all key levels and Fibonacci Levels, and also look out for divergences as they have the power to reverse a trend

Bull Flag

Ascending Triangle (bullish bias)

The first target was hit!

Although the second target can still be hit, I am removing this pattern as it is now invalid.

THE BAD

4H Timeframe

Divergences

Bearish Divergence

We have higher highs in price, with lower highs on the RSI/MACD. This is a bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal. In this case, that means down. Alternatively, we may continue to go sideways.

Invalidation: Higher high in price, with a higher high on the RSI/MACD.

Patterns

*Please note not all technical targets will be hit, so be aware of all key levels and Fibonacci Levels, and also look out for divergences as they have the power to reverse a trend

Rising Channel

1H Timeframe

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has seen a rejection from this EMA ribbon.

Implication: The momentum is currently with the bears, and it's reasonable to expect it to continue to be with the bears until we break back above it.

KEY LEVELS

4H Timeframe

  1. 53235

  2. 53865

  3. 54885

  4. 55473

  5. 56320

  6. 57380

  7. 58000

  8. 58430

  9. 59495

  10. 60200

  11. 60865

  12. 61300

  13. 61844

  14. 62505

  15. 63800

  16. 64855

  17. Fibonacci levels

1-hour Timeframe

  1. 61500

  2. 61880

  3. 62695

  4. 62930

  5. 62695

  6. 62378

  7. 63950

  8. 64343

FINAL THOUGHTS

RECAP FROM LAST NIGHT

Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a much larger correction as it struggles to bounce from the Rising Channel support.

If we lose this as support, the next Key Level I would be looking for a bounce from is the 60k Weekly Level which is also a psychological level. If the bulls are unable to hold that as support, then the next technical level I am looking at is around 58k where we have a Golden Pocket, and also a Daily Level.

Looking left, we can see that the 58k level, give or take a few $100, was significant resistance. To me, it makes sense if we retrace there to confirm it as support. Similar to the 42k SR flip, this is something that would further solidify the bullish momentum in the market and set a stronger foundation for another leg up.

On the way up, we did not consolidate at all. We pretty much moonshot it. While that's fun and all, it leaves us vulnerable to much more volatile corrections because there were no new levels of support formed.

This may sound a bit scary, but I can see the possibility for Bitcoin coming down to 50k and continuing up. It's by no means ideal, but the market conditions would likely still be bullish IMO with a correction that steep. But let's not get too ahead of ourselves, it's best if we take things level by level. Lose one level, look down to the next. Claim one level, look up to the next. That way we don't get too excited or too anxious. Level-headedness is the name of the game in crypto to remain sane.

This is a lower timeframe pattern we can keep our eye on in the short term. I've included both bullish and bearish targets for this Bear Flag/Pennant.

All in all, Bitcoin is still in an uptrend, so it's reasonable to remain bullish until the trend ends. But, there are warning signs that there may be a larger correction on its way.

THIS MORNING

Bitcoin has broken to the downside from the Rising Channel, and things are looking a bit dicey.

These are the Key Levels we should have our eyes on. We've found support from the March 13th Daily Level after being rejected from the April 13th Daily Level. Losing the 60k Weekly would be the first big warning sign. And then losing the May 8th Daily Level would be the next big warning sign.

But, for right now, I do believe we're still in good shape. This is just part of the correction that we've been looking for, which is a well-needed one. If we had continued up much higher without correcting, the more likely scenario would be seeing a much more volatile move to the downside which could have actually ended all bullish scenarios because of the lack of support created on the way up. As of right now, there still is a higher probability that we continue up.

However, the 1D bearish divergence is still concerning to me. The MACD has yet to reset into the negative territory, meaning this correction may take a lot longer than most expect. We may see Bitcoin either see a further price correction or trade sideways for the next few days to weeks. On the bright side, however, this would allow altcoins to take the stage and outperform Bitcoin.

All in all, Bitcoin still looks good. The trend has changed as we've lost the upsloping support from the Rising Channel, so I remain cautiously bullish.

Thank you for your continued support and I hope you have a great week ahead. Keep an eye out for tonight's daily market report in about 8 hours.

Cheers!

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