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You will find the content below in this order:
1. Definitions
2. Weekly
3. The Good
4. The Bad
5. CME Gaps
6. Key Levels
7. Final Thoughts

DEFINITIONS

Liquidity zones are high volume levels that offer support and resistance

Hidden bearish divergence: creating a lower high in price, with a higher high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation down.

Bearish divergence: higher high in price, lower high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal down.

Hidden bullish divergence: creating a higher low in price, with a lower low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation up.

Bullish divergence: creating a lower low in price, with a higher low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal up.

SR flip: turning old resistance into support, and vice-versa.

Fractal: recurring geometric pattern.

WEEKLY

Bull Market Support Band

Bitcoin will have traded an entire candle below the band.

Implication: This may serve as a level of resistance moving forward. Technically, according to this indicator, we are now in a bear market.

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin remains trading above the EMA ribbon in this timeframe.

Implication: Bullish momentum continues to outweigh bearish momentum on the weekly timeframe (macro outlook).

Simple Moving Averages (SMA): 20-week, 50-week

Bitcoin will close below the 20-week SMA tonight and above the 50-week SMA.

Implication: We may see the 20-week SMA serve as a level of resistance. And, ideally, the 50-week SMA continues to hold as support.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA): 8-week, 13-week, 21-week

Bitcoin will likely close below these three EMAs tonight.

Implication: They may serve as levels of resistance moving forward.

Divergences

Bearish Divergence (red)

We have a higher high in price, with a lower high on the RSI/MACD. This is a bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal. In this case, that means down.

Invalidation: Higher high in price, with a higher high in the RSI/MACD.

THE GOOD

Daily Timeframe

Bullish Market Structure

Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows. This is known as a bullish market structure. As long as Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows, we are technically bullish.

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)

Zone 1: Sitting between 33.9k and 35.2k, Bitcoin is still trading above this Key Daily Liquidity Zone. As long Bitcoin remains above this zone, we can expect it to act as support.

Zone 2: The second LQZ sits at 46.4k - 47.6k.

Simple Moving Average (SMA): 200

Bitcoin continues to trade above the 200-day SMA.

Implications: This will ideally serve as a level of support.

Divergences

Hidden Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin has a higher low in price, with a lower low on the RSI. This is a hidden bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation up.

Invalidation: Lower low in price and the RSI.

Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin has a lower low in price, with a higher low on the MACD. This is a bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.

Invalidation: Lower low in price and the RSI.

4H Timeframe

Simple Moving Averages (SMA): 20 and 50

Bitcoin has reclaimed the 20 and 50 SMAs.

Implication: They may serve as levels of support moving forward.

Patterns

*Please note not all technical targets will be hit, so be aware of all key levels and Fibonacci Levels, and also look out for divergences as they have the power to reverse a trend

Descending Triangle

1H Timeframe

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has risen above the EMA ribbon in this timeframe.

Implication: Momentum is with the bulls in this timeframe.Ideally, this serves as a level of support.

THE BAD

Daily Timeframe

Logarithmic Curve

Bitcoin has lost the median as support and may now be losing the 0.382 Fibonacci Level as support. Continuing to lose level after level is not ideal one bit.

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)



Zone 3: The final daily liquidity zone sits at 60.7k-61.9k, which Bitcoin has lost as support. We may see it serve as resistance moving forward.

Bullish Exhaustion

We have an increase in price with a decline in volume, possibly signalling a loss of bullish momentum in the market.

Directional Movement Index (DMI)

*This is another momentum indicator.

Generally speaking, when the blue line (bullish) crosses below the orange line (bearish), it signals a potential shift in momentum to the bears.

Network Value to Transaction (NVT)

*This indicator describes the relationship between market cap and transfer volumes.

Bitcoin has lost the NVT Signal Line as support. Typically when this happens, Bitcoin sees a more sustained correction.

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has lost the EMA ribbon as support in this timeframe.

Implication: It may end up serving as strong resistance.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA): 8, 21, 50 and 200

Bitcoin has lost these SMAs as support, and we have seen a Death Cross between the 21/50-day EMAs. We have seen a Death Cross between the 8/200-day EMAs.

Implications: These may serve as resistance moving forward. Death Crosses signal a potential bearish continuation. Keep in mind, however, the most important EMA Death Cross is between the 50/200-day EMAs.

Simple Moving Average (SMA): 20, 50 and 100

Bitcoin has lost these SMAs as support, and we have seen a Death Cross between the 20/100-day SMAs.

Implications: They may serve as a level of resistance moving forward.

4H Timeframe

Bearish Market Structure

Bitcoin continues to print lower highs and lower lows. This is known as a bearish market structure. Until Bitcoin can create a meaningful new higher high, the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin is bearish.

Key Liquidity Zone (LQZ)


Zone 1: Bitcoin has lost this LQZ as support, which sits at 56.9k - 57.4k.

Implications: A lot of the liquidity in this timeframe rests above the current price of Bitcoin. We may see this serve as resistance moving forward.

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin is finding resistance from the ribbon in this timeframe..

Implication: Momentum is with the bears. This may continue serving as resistance moving forward.

Note: The narrower the ribbon, the weaker it serves as support/resistance.

Simple Moving Average (SMA): 200

Bitcoin continues to trade below this SMA.

Implications: It may act as resistance moving forward.

Divergences

Hidden Bearish Divergence

Bitcoin has a lower high in price, with a higher high on the RSI. This is a hidden bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation down.

Invalidation: Higher high in price and in the RSI.

1H Timeframe

EMA Ribbon

Bitcoin has fallen below the EMA ribbon in this timeframe.

Implication: Momentum may be shifting back to the bears. This may serve as resistance moving forward.

Note: The narrower the ribbon, the weaker it serves as support/resistance.

CME GAPS

The gap below us at 32480 is still open. Although not all gaps fill, they do tend to, which is why I'm still including this gap as something to be aware of.

NEW GAP: 53665

NEW GAP: 47890

Key Levels

Weekly Timeframe

  1. 31780

  2. 34680

  3. 39020

  4. 43160

  5. 45135

  6. 47240

  7. 49065

  8. 51755

  9. 54660

  10. 56580

  11. 57415

  12. 58240

  13. 58975

  14. 60000

  15. 60850

  16. 61530

  17. 65520

Daily Timeframe

  1. 29790

  2. 33380

  3. 35910

  4. 38205

  5. 39245

  6. 40735

  7. 42205

  8. 44865

  9. 46255

  10. 47140

  11. 47800

  12. 47635

  13. 46255

  14. 44865

  15. 42205

  16. 40735

  17. 39245

  18. 38205

  19. 35910

  20. 33400

  21. 29800

  22. 48290

  23. 49490

  24. 50590

  25. 51295

  26. 51755

  27. 52665

  28. 53950

  29. 54340

  30. 54720

  31. 55315

  32. 56245

  33. 56900

  34. 57775

  35. 58050

  36. 58415

  37. 58865

  38. Fibonacci Levels

4H Timeframe

  1. 39970

  2. 40755

  3. 41645

  4. 42845

  5. 44215

  6. 45310

  7. 46745

  8. 48145

  9. 48845

  10. 49755

  11. 50380

  12. 51000

  13. 51885

  14. 52190

  15. 52829

  16. 53235

  17. 53865

  18. 54885

  19. 55473

  20. Fibonacci levels

1-hour Timeframe

  1. 42000

  2. 46130

  3. 47920

  4. 48315

  5. 49190

  6. 49700

  7. 50545

  8. 51200

  9. 51680

  10. 52605

  11. 53860

  12. 56040

  13. 57375

  14. Fibonacci levels

FINAL THOUGHTS

RECAP FROM LAST FRIDAY

After a fairly volatile day, Bitcoin is essentially exactly where it was at the daily open. 

On the 1D timeframe, we have the potential for a Morningstar Candlestick Pattern (MCP) to form. This is the same pattern from yesterday's report, except now on the 1D timeframe. This isn't confirmed yet because we do need to see a candle form similar to the one in the red box. Inside of that red box was another MCP which did result in a move to the upside. 

Now, we do need other levels of confluence to support the argument for a reversal up. Unfortunately, we don't have the same levels of confluence as we previously did. To me, although it is possible we see similar PA in the coming days, this isn't as strong as the other ones.

Bitcoin is inside of a Descending Triangle as well. And as we know, this is a pattern that comes with a bearish bias. Meaning, there's a statistically higher chance that we break to the downside. However, please keep in mind that there is still a possibility of breaking to the upside. 

All in all, nothing has really changed in the grand scheme of things. We're still sort of in this state of limbo. It's important to keep in mind that there's still the possibility that this is a dead cat bounce if we continue up much higher than here given that we have the 4H hidden bearish divergence still in play. But, it's nice to see the 1H/4H bullish divergences and the 1D bullish divergences potentially coming into play.

_
TONIGHT

The Good

  1. Trading above the Daily LQZ 1/2

  2. Holding the 200 1D SMA as support

  3. 1D Hidden Bullish Divergence

  4. 1D Bullish Divergence

  5. Holding the 1H/1W EMA Ribbon

  6. Holding the 50W SMA

  7. CME Gap at 53,665

  8. Bullish Market Structure (1D timeframe)

  9. Descending Triangle breakout

_

The Bad

  1. 1W Bearish Divergence

  2. 1M Bearish Divergence

  3. Bullish Exhaustion

  4. Lost the 4H/1D EMA Ribbons

  5. Lost the 8/21/50/200-day EMAs and the 20/50/100-day SMAs

  6. Lost the 20/50/200 4H SMAs

  7. Lost Daily LQZ 3

  8. Lost the 4H LQZ 1

  9. Volume Analysis

  10. Bearish NVT

  11. Bearish DMI

  12. Rejected from the Bitcoin Logarithmic Curve Median Line

  13. 20/50-day SMA Death Cross

  14. 21/50-day EMA Death Cross

  15. 20/100-day SMA Death Cross

  16. 8/200-day EMA Death Cross

  17. Bearish Market Structure (4H timeframe)

  18. Lost the Bull Market Support Band

  19. Lost the 20W SMA

  20. Lost the 8/13/21W EMAs

  21. 4H Hidden Bearish Divergence

_

This Macro Volume Analysis still stands.

_

Bitcoin has had a relatively calm weekend as we've seen a breakout from the Falling Wedge/Descending Triangle.

However, with this breakout, I do have a few concerns.

Alongside the 4H hidden bearish divergence on the RSI, we do have a potential Bearish Cypher. When we identify potential harmonic patterns, we need to always look for additional levels of confluence. Aside from the 4H divergence, depending how quickly we move up to create a new swing high (higher than the previous high from today), we may end up creating new bearish divergences from the 1H timeframe down. If that happens, it increases the probability for a move to the downside.

But, if we do continue up from here, the levels that we've had our eyes on the over the last week are the same. There is also a downsloping white trend line that may serve as a level of resistance. Breaking through that level could initiate a rally. We'll have to re-evaluate the market conditions if/when we get there.

We also have a new CME Gap down at 47,890. Although not all gaps fill, they do tend to.

All in all, nothing has really changed in the grand scheme of things. We're still sort of in this state of limbo. It's important to keep in mind that there's still the possibility that this is a dead cat bounce if we continue up much higher than here given that we have the 4H hidden bearish divergence still in play. But, it's nice to see the 1D bullish divergences providing some upside.

Friendly reminder to remain level-headed! Even if we do see a meaningful move to the upside sooner rather than later, there's still the possibility that it may be a dead cat bounce. Weekly/Monthly divergences are very significant for the macro outlook of an asset if they aren't invalidated. 

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Thank you for your continued support, and I hope you have a great week up ahead.

Cheers!

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