Working on the assumption that Keir Starmer will not resign if he loses Batley and Spen, in this article I set out the reasons why his attempts to cling on to the Labour leadership will prove futile and are doomed to end in failure.
Keir Starmer recently lost Hartlepool, a seat Labour had held since the constituency was created in 1974. Jeremy Corbyn held Hartlepool twice when he was Labour leader and helped increase Labour’s vote share in the constituency by 16.9% in 2017. Starmer took a Labour majority of 3,595 votes and turned it into a Tory majority of 6,940.
It is very unusual for a government to win a by-election and it is also worth noting that the Hartlepool by-election result was the 15th largest swing in the history of UK by-elections. These are grim statistics which should seriously concern Labour MPs.
Despite losing Hartlepool, losing 327 council seats, losing 8 councils and losing Labour’s majority on Durham council, a majority Labour had held for a century, Keir Starmer did not resign. Despite Labour slumping to 28% in the polls and Starmer’s own personal ratings dropping like a lead balloon, Keir Starmer has still not resigned. What would it take to force him to resign? How low must Labour’s polling fall to trigger his resignation? Is there a number, is there a limit? It is a fair question.
A prime minister in waiting?
When he ran to be leader Starmer presented himself to members as a prime minister in waiting. The wider electorate has now had a year to form an opinion of Starmer and they have reached an almost unanimous consensus. In a recent poll just 16% of voters said they thought Starmer looks like a prime minister in waiting. Labour members appear to be out of step with the electorate over the rather important question of who should lead Labour.
If Starmer’s past responses to defeat are anything to go by he will ignore calls for his resignation if he loses Batley and Spen. I think we just have to accept that he will not resign of his own volition. It has taken a lot of planning and hard work for him to become the Labour leader and he is not going to give up his position easily.
The real question isn’t whether Keir Starmer will resign, it is whether he will be able to continue as Labour leader if he loses the seat. I don’t think it will be possible and have two main reasons for holding that view.
The first is that his leadership is built on sand, it has no solid foundation. When he became leader he made the error of not securing the Labour base and spent his time courting Tory voters instead. As the polls show, his strategy of shifting Labour right and taking Labour voters and members for granted is haemorrhaging Labour votes and support.
Under new management
Internally, the Labour Party has become a menacing environment for members since Keir Starmer and his acting general secretary David Evans took over. It is perplexing that a human rights advocate like Keir Starmer would deny Labour members their right to free speech but that is exactly what is happening in the party. CLP and Branch chairs are being told what can and cannot be discussed at meetings. Chairs and secretaries are being suspended for allowing members to exercise their right to free speech. It is even more perplexing that this censorship of free speech in Labour, a denial of a human right, has received virtually no coverage in the media, apart from coverage by new left media.
You would think free speech being stamped out in the opposition party would be an important story which would be widely reported but the media has shown little interest. Whatever political affiliations and beliefs people have, we should all protect free speech. If Labour members can be treated like this then so can everybody else.
Another important and worrying issue facing the party at the moment is the delayed publication of the Forde Report. A full explanation about the report would require another article, suffice it to say it is a report about a leaked Labour document which included evidence of internal sabotage by senior Labour staff and MPs. The leaked Labour Report also contained evidence of anti-black racism and Islamaphobia. There appears to be no urgency on Keir Starmer's part to publish the Forde Report.
As well as denying members free speech, Starmer and his acting general secretary are currently misusing party rules to influence the selection of the delegates who will be attending Labour's Conference in Brighton in September. The reason they are doing that is to give the Labour right wing enough votes to pass democratically regressive rules which will benefit their faction of the party.
The attempts to shut down debate and influence delegate numbers at Conference are signs of a leadership intent on bullying and coercing members into doing what it wants, rather than one which convinces and unites people behind its vision. It is a sign of bad leadership.
On the issue of electability
The second reason I believe Starmer will inevitably be forced to resign is because recent election results and polling have shown how electorally toxic he is. He is polling lower than Labour. We have now reached the point where Starmer’s unpopularity is damaging Labour’s electability.
This leads to the rarely discussed but critical problem with Keir Starmer. He not only depresses and splinters the Labour vote, he also hardens the Tory vote: a toxic electoral combination. That is the ultimate reason why Labour can’t win power while he is leader. If we were to speculate about why Starmer causes this negative trend I would argue it is largely because he tried to stop Brexit. Trying to stop Brexit fatally damaged his electability and credibility.
Brexit was the greatest political issue of the day. Keir Starmer changed his mind on Brexit three times in four years. In 2016 he campaigned to remain, in 2017 he was elected on a commitment to accept the referendum result, in 2018 he reneged on that commitment and insisted Labour support a second referendum and then in 2020 he voted for the Tory Brexit deal. How could anybody take Keir Starmer seriously after that? He opportunistically flip flopped on the biggest issue of the day and picked whichever side most benefited his career at the time.
As a result of defying the wishes of 17.4 million leave voters by trying to stop Brexit and then defying the wishes of 16.4 million remain voters by voting for the Tory deal, Starmer has effectively double crossed 33 million voters. How can a leader who does that win power? They can’t. Of course they can’t.
On the issue of trust
Keir Starmer also broke his word over Brexit. He stood as a Labour candidate in 2017 promising to deliver Brexit. Once elected he then went back on his word and insisted the Labour party stop Brexit. How can voters trust he will keep the promises he makes when they know his word is not his bond? How can they trust him? They can’t. How can he be the person to rebuild Labour's broken trust with voters when he was the one who broke it? He can't.
Those are the reasons why I think Keir Starmer will not be able to continue as Labour leader, even if he wins Batley and Spen. It is not about the seat, it is not about the catastrophic polling, it is not about having no policies and no vision for the country. It is about Keir Starmer.
Keir Starmer is the problem. If the Labour party is serious about winning the next general election it will need to replace Keir Starmer with a new leader as quickly as possible. If that new leader is shrewd and wants to win power they will build a programme of government based on the policies that won Labour 12.9 million votes (40% vote share) at the 2017 general election.
Conclusion
All the available data indicates that Keir Starmer is leading Labour straight towards defeat, potentially towards electoral annihilation. Senior Party officials must act now. A delegation of senior Labour MPs should tell Starmer that his strategy has failed, his position is untenable and he must resign for the good of the Party.