With Labour enjoying a large lead in the polls it might seem counterintuitive to argue that Keir Starmer reduces Labour’s chances of winning the next general election but that is exactly what I am just about to do.
Having studied the hard evidence I have arrived at the conclusion that Keir Starmer diminishes Labour’s electability significantly. In this article I will set out the evidence so you can arrive at your own conclusion.
In the latest poll released by Redfield Wilton, Labour is on 52% with the Tories on 24%, an impressive 28 point lead. Other polls give Labour 25 and 19 point leads. These are not only the best polling numbers Keir Starmer has achieved since becoming leader, they are better than any party has recorded in twenty years.
Starmer and Labour are naturally delighted with those polling numbers and claim they show Labour is on a path to power. Some even go so far as to say a Labour victory is inevitable. But are they right? The evidence I have seen suggests that is not the case, a Labour victory is not inevitable and is in fact made less likely as a result of Keir Starmer being the leader of the party.
I give more weight to election results than polls. There are lots of reasons I don’t give polls much weight, one is that pollsters talk about methodology a lot but rarely about verification, which is odd as that is the currency of their business model. How do they know the people taking part in their polls are who they claim to be? For example, how do they verify mobile phone accounts? They can’t, they have no idea if their respondents are who they say they are. It would be fairly easy for well funded and organised groups to use technology to influence the results of polls.
I have slightly strayed from my point, which is I don’t give polls as much weight as votes. Votes are the only thing that really count and when you look at Starmer’s leadership through the lens of election results things don’t look so rosy, in fact they look rather grim.
The Labour vote has collapsed at every parliamentary by-election apart from one since Keir Starmer became Labour leader. Starmer has also recorded the worst by-election defeat in Labour’s history, winning 1.6% of the vote at the Chesham and Amersham by-election. This trend is apparent in both parliamentary and local by-election results. At the recent Bolton council by-election the Labour vote collapsed by almost 50% and the Tories gained the seat.
Labour might have a big lead in the polls but that is not preventing its vote from collapsing, a collapse which began when Starmer became leader and which is continuing under his leadership.
It is critical the Tories are removed from power. No unnecessary risks should be taken which would reduce the likelihood of that happening. Starmer causes the Labour vote to collapse and therefore reduces the party’s chances of winning power.
For that reason Labour should replace Keir Starmer with a new leader before the next general election.