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You will find the content below in this order:
Definitions
Market Structure
Volume
Divergences
Key Levels
Key Takeaways
Definitions
Liquidity zones are high volume levels that offer support and resistance
Hidden bearish divergence: creating a lower high in price, with a higher high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation down.
Bearish divergence: higher high in price, lower high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal down.
Hidden bullish divergence: creating a higher low in price, with a lower low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation up.
Bullish divergence: creating a lower low in price, with a higher low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal up.
SR (support/resistance) flip: turning old resistance into support, and vice-versa.
Fractal: recurring geometric pattern.
Market Structure
Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin has fallen to lower levels, ultimately creating a new lower low and invalidating the potential market structure change. This implies that Bitcoin is currently in a Bearish Market Structure.
Medium Timeframe
On the medium-term timeframes (MTF), after topping out at 48.2k, Bitcoin has continued to make lower highs and lower lows. This is known as Bearish Market Structure. Technically speaking, unless we break the 40.8k high, on the MTFs we are still bearish.
Volume
Macro Volume
Similar to the bear market of Summer 2021, we have finally seen an increase in volume. If you're a longtime follower, you may remember the macro volume analysis that I created back in November hinting at the high likelihood of a massive move to the downside. Given that we are seeing similar volume come in at the current level that we're at, it does still suggest that there's a strong possibility that we do bottom out here at least in the medium term and continue to higher levels – potentially to 36k to fill the gap there, and then ultimately to 53.6k.
Divergences
1D Timeframe
Bullish Divergence
Bitcoin has a lower low in price, with a higher low in the RSI. This is a bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.
4H Timeframe
Bullish Divergence
Bitcoin has a lower low in price, with a higher low in the RSI. This is a bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.
Hidden Bearish Divergence
Bitcoin has a lower high in price, with a higher high in the RSI/MACD. This is a hidden bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation down.
1H Timeframe
Hidden Bearish Divergence
Bitcoin has a lower high in price, with a higher high in the RSI/MACD. This is a hidden bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation down.
Exaggerated Hidden Bullish Divergence
Bitcoin has a higher low in price, with a similar low in the RSI. This is an exaggerated bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend reversal up.
Key Levels
CME Gaps
NEW GAP: 29,785
GAP: 36,065
GAP: 32,480 – This gap has nearly been completely filled!
GAP: 53,675 – As mentioned when the gap first formed, this is a "breakaway gap". These are gaps that form when there's a dramatic shift in market structure. Typically these gaps take much longer to fill than the normal gaps. This is comparable to the gap at 32,480.
Daily Timeframe
29000
29765
30020
31015
32253
35060
37000
37610
38680
39420
39725
40400
41135
41465
42180
44525
45510
47420
48870
50765
51800
53800
57785
58480
61310
63590
65530
67600
Fibonacci Levels
4H Timeframe
26535
27600
28915
30980
32905
33960
35490
36200
36630
37550
39250
40350
Fibonacci levels
1H Timeframe
27600
29000
29710
30300
30815
31050
32060
32665
Fibonacci levels
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin has fallen down to lower levels, ultimately breaking any bullish market structure we had. Now, Bitcoin has a Bearish Market Structure across all timeframes. We are still trading within the Falling Wedge Pattern, with a valid 1D bullish divergence. Above, I've included the immediate Key Levels to be aware of when trading.
The other levels both above and below mentioned in the previous reports are still relevant today.
These are the macro Fibonacci Levels right below us that we can look to for support. Golden Pocket = yellow, 0.786 = red, 0.886 = blue.
And these are other 0.786/0.886 levels we can look towards.
If we see a continued move up from here, these are the Golden Pockets we can look towards.
Thanks for your continued support! If you have any questions, feel free to DM me. Cheers!
SHORT-TERM BIAS: NEUTRAL
MEDIUM-TERM BIAS: BEARISH-NEUTRAL
LONG-TERM BIAS: BEARISH