*I recommend reading these summaries on the Buy Me A Coffee platform.
You will find the content below in this order:
1. Definitions
2. The Good
3. The Bad
4. Key Levels
5. Final Thoughts
DEFINITIONS
Liquidity zones are high volume levels that offer support and resistance
Hidden bearish divergence: creating a lower high in price, with a higher high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation down.
Bearish divergence: higher high in price, lower high on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal down.
Hidden bullish divergence: creating a higher low in price, with a lower low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend continuation up.
Bullish divergence: creating a lower low in price, with a higher low on the oscillators. This signals a possible trend reversal up.
SR flip: turning old resistance into support, and vice-versa.
Fractal: recurring geometric pattern.
Price action (PA): the movement of an asset's price over time.
THE GOOD
4H Timeframe
Key Liquidity Zone
Zone 1: Bitcoin has held this LQZ as support, which sits at 60.9k - 61.4k.
Zone 2: We have a 4H LQZ sitting at 54.7k – 55.2k.
Implications: A lot of the liquidity in this timeframe rests below the current price of Bitcoin. Ideally, this LQZ will serve as support.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): 200
Bitcoin is trading above this SMA.
Implications: It will ideally serve as a level of support.
Divergences
Potential Hidden Bullish Divergence
Bitcoin has a higher low in price, with a lower low on the MACD. This is a hidden bullish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation up.
Invalidation: Lower low in price and the MACD.
Patterns
*Please note not all technical targets will be hit, so be aware of all key levels and Fibonacci Levels, and also look out for divergences as they have the power to reverse a trend
Symmetrical Triangle
THE BAD
4H Timeframe
EMA Ribbon
Bitcoin has fallen back below the ribbon.
Implication: The momentum is currently with the bears. We may see this serve as a level of resistance moving forward.
The narrower the ribbon, the weaker it will serve as support/resistance.
Simple Moving Averages (SMA): 20 and 50
Bitcoin has failed to hold these as support.
Implication: They may serve as a level of resistance moving forward.
Patterns
*Please note not all technical targets will be hit, so be aware of all key levels and Fibonacci Levels, and also look out for divergences as they have the power to reverse a trend
Rising Wedge
Rising Channel
1H Timeframe
EMA Ribbon
Bitcoin has lost the ribbon as support.
Implication: The momentum is now with the bears in the short term, and the ribbon may serve as a level of resistance.
Divergences
Exaggerated Hidden Bearish Divergence
Bitcoin had a lower high in price, with a lower high on the MACD and a similar high on the RSI. This is an exaggerated hidden bearish divergence, which signals a possible trend continuation down.
Invalidation: Higher high in price and the oscillators.
KEY LEVELS
4H Timeframe
53235
53865
54885
55473
56320
57380
58000
58430
59495
60200
60865
61300
61844
62505
63800
64855
Fibonacci levels
1-hour Timeframe
57840
58085
58530
58850
60000
60360
61055
61405
61880
62375
62695
62930
63710
64485
65465
66190
66640
67000
Fibonacci levels
FINAL THOUGHTS
RECAP FROM LAST NIGHT
Bitcoin remains in the consolidation range it's been in for weeks now. We are technically neutral until we break out of this range either to either the bullish or bearish ranges.
I do believe there is quite a bit of momentum lost at this point. In confluence, we have the bearish NVT, potential bearish DMI, and the loss of the 20/50 4H SMAs and 1H/4H EMA ribbons.
As another level of bearish confluence – In green, we have Morningstar Candlestick Patterns. In red, we have an Eveningstar Candlestick Pattern. If you've been subscribed to my premium for at least two months, you may remember us looking at the Morningstar Pattern. It's a pattern that typically results in a reversal to the upside. When we see the same pattern but reversed, we refer to it as an Eveningstar Pattern. These candlestick patterns typically result in a move to the downside.
All in all, we are still in an uptrend and continue to hold the 60k Weekly/Psychological Level as support, so we can remain reasonably bullish. But, I remain cautious given that we are still trading under resistance in a neutral zone and still do have quite a few bearish technicals.
THIS MORNING
Between last night and this morning, Bitcoin has taken a bit of a tumble as it struggles to maintain positive momentum in the immediate short term.
Not much has changed. There is still a loss of momentum here for Bitcoin. We have also fallen back into the lower bounds of the Consolidation Range. What this implies is that Bitcoin can be considered "bearish-neutral" now until it can decisively break above the Oct. 15th Daily Level or even better, the 62.4k Key Level. The 62.4k level has been a consistent point of rejection over the last few weeks.
All in all, Bitcoin is still in an uptrend and continues to hold the 60k Weekly/Psychological Level as support, so we can remain reasonably bullish. But, as previously mentioned, there seems to be a loss in momentum, and Bitcoin, IMO, needs to remain above at least 60.4k for the best-case scenario.
Thank you for your continued support and I hope you have a great rest of the week! Keep an eye out for tonight's daily market report in about 8 hours.
Cheers!